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Talarico leads Texas Senate pricing across Polymarket and Kalshi

USA Today's Election Day live Texas coverage, updated Nov. 3 at 10:18 AM ET and read this run, carries the 8 AM ET prices for the race to replace John Cornyn: Democrat…

James Talarico was priced at 74% on Polymarket and 73% on Kalshi in the Texas Senate contest to replace John Cornyn, according to the supplied summary of USA Today’s Election Day coverage.

Combined trading volume across the two venues stood at $103M. The supplied material does not break that total down by platform.

Timing matters for the market snapshot

The prices were recorded at 8 AM ET. USA Today’s live Texas coverage was updated Nov. 3 at 10:18 AM ET, while the supplied story was published Nov. 3, 2026, at 10:54 AM ET. The quoted probabilities therefore represent an earlier snapshot, rather than prices verified at publication.

The two platforms differed by just one percentage point in their pricing of Talarico. The available summary is truncated and contains no source links, leaving no basis to assess subsequent price changes or the reporting behind those moves.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Similar pricing across venues: Both markets placed Talarico above 70%, with Polymarket one percentage point higher than Kalshi. Those prices reflect market expectations, not a confirmed election result.
  • Volume has limits as a signal: The $103M combined total documents trading activity but does not establish how much occurred on either venue or how readily contracts could be traded.
  • Use the observation time: The relevant timestamp for these probabilities is 8 AM ET, not the later coverage update or publication time.
PredictionMarketsKalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com/markets
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.
  2. Source 2
    Polymarketpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Kalshi”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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