Ricketts loses ground across Nebraska Senate markets but remains favored

Pete Ricketts remains favored against independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska’s Senate race, but his prediction-market prices have fallen over the past seven days, according to Sikt Intelligence.

The report, published Nov 3, 2026, at 11:15 AM ET, puts Ricketts at 66 percent on Kalshi and 68 percent on Polymarket. Osborn stands at 34 percent and 32 percent, respectively.

Both platforms move toward Osborn

Ricketts’ Kalshi price declined 7 points over seven days, while his Polymarket price dropped 5 points, according to Sikt Intelligence. The platforms therefore show the same direction of movement, with Kalshi recording the larger decline.

Polymarket still assigns Ricketts a probability 2 points higher than Kalshi does. Neither market has moved him out of the favored position.

Forecast sits below market prices

Sikt Intelligence’s own forecast assigns Ricketts a 64 percent probability, below both market readings. Its middle margin estimate is 2.4 points.

That leaves Sikt’s forecast 2 points below Kalshi and 4 points below Polymarket. All three readings favor Ricketts, while differing on the strength of that advantage.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction is consistent: Ricketts has lost ground on both platforms over seven days, though the declines differ in size.
• Prices remain distinct: Kalshi’s 66 percent reading is lower than Polymarket’s 68 percent, with Osborn priced at 34 percent and 32 percent.
• Forecast and markets are not identical: Sikt Intelligence’s 64 percent forecast is the lowest Ricketts probability of the three; its 2.4-point middle margin estimate measures the expected margin rather than the probability of victory.