Moody leads Florida Senate pricing as traders weigh Republican margin

Action Network’s Nov 3, 2026 update, published at 11:15 AM ET, put Ashley Moody at 88 cents on both Kalshi and Polymarket in their Florida Senate markets.

Platforms align on Moody, differ slightly on Nixon

Angie Nixon traded at 14 cents on Polymarket and 13 cents on Kalshi, according to Action Network. The platforms therefore showed identical prices for Moody but a one-cent difference for Nixon.

Kalshi’s Florida Senate market had recorded 5.62 million dollars in trading, Action Network reported. The supplied summary did not include a comparable volume figure for Polymarket.

On Polymarket, the leading margin-of-victory outcome was a Republican win by 12 to 15 percent, priced at 26 cents. That contract addresses the size of the result rather than simply which candidate wins.

What it means for prediction markets

• Moody’s 88-cent price on both platforms indicates closely aligned expectations favoring her, but does not establish certainty about the outcome.
• The leading Republican margin contract traded at 26 cents. Its position as the most expensive margin outcome should not be confused with a majority probability for that specific range.
• Kalshi’s reported trading volume provides context for market activity; without Polymarket’s corresponding figure, it does not support a comparison of participation across the two platforms.