Taiwanese local elections: Kuomintang falls further to 71%, DPP rises to 30.1%

KMT remains ahead as DPP gains

Kuomintang (KMT) remained the favorite in the Polymarket market on Taiwan’s 2026 local-election party winner, but its displayed probability fell to 71% from 75.5% earlier today. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rose to 30.1% from 22.7%, narrowing the distance between the two outcomes.

According to polymarkettrader.com, the latest snapshot was recorded on October 15, 2026 at 12:50 UTC. Its separate 24-hour comparison showed KMT down 4.5 percentage points and DPP up 5.9 percentage points; that daily comparison is distinct from the earlier-today figures.

Total trading volume stood at $295.6K, including $18.7K over the last 24 hours, with liquidity of $179.3K. Reported volume by outcome was $113.8K for KMT, $108.1K for DPP and $73.8K for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). The source gives inconsistent TPP probability readings: below 0.1% in its structured summary and 0.1% in its FAQ.

Settlement depends on local-government victories

The elections are scheduled for November 28, 2026, while the market’s listed end date is November 29, 2026. According to the rules reproduced by polymarkettrader.com, settlement depends on which party’s official candidates win the most qualifying mayoral and magistrate contests—not on an aggregate vote total. Candidates must be both nominated by and registered with their party; independents do not contribute to any party’s tally.

The qualifying mayoral contests cover Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City and Chiayi City. The magistrate contests cover Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County and Kinmen County.

A party secures the market outcome when no competitor can mathematically match or exceed its number of victories. If parties finish level at the top, alphabetical order of their English names as listed in the market group determines the winner. The market remains open until a winner is established or all relevant results become official.

If any results remain unknown at June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, settlement uses the results available by then; if none are known, it resolves to “Other”. The rules cite a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity settled solely through official Taiwanese government results from the Central Election Commission. Polymarket’s published rules control settlement.

What it means for prediction markets

• The favorite has weakened, not changed. KMT still leads at 71%, while DPP’s rise to 30.1% reflects a narrower market advantage.
• These are price snapshots. The source interprets Polymarket YES-share prices as probabilities and refreshes twice daily; the figures are neither live nor executable quotes.
• The contest count matters. Only the specified mayoral and magistrate victories determine settlement, with independent wins excluded and an alphabetical tie-break applying.
• The listed end date is not decisive. Official results and the market’s resolution conditions govern the settlement timetable.