Largest Company end of October: Nvidia leads at 79%, Apple at 23% on $364.6K traded

Nvidia leads the October contract

Nvidia stood at 79% and Apple at 23% in the supplied snapshot of Polymarket’s market for the largest company by market capitalization at the end of October, published Oct 15, 2026, at 1:09 PM ET. Trading volume was $364.6K.

The market launched Oct. 1 and is separate from the end-of-December contract. That distinction matters: the October book concerns the ranking at the nearer deadline, not which company will lead at year-end.

Valuations favor Nvidia, but probability figures differ

According to Polymarket’s accompanying commentary, NVIDIA’s market capitalization is roughly $5.3 trillion, compared with approximately $5.0 trillion for Apple. That commentary gives NVIDIA a 64% implied probability of finishing October 2026 in first place, rather than the 79% in the headline snapshot. The supplied material does not reconcile those figures.

Polymarket attributes NVIDIA’s position to sustained demand for AI accelerators and data-center GPUs, which it says has produced outsized revenue growth. Its commentary describes a widening valuation gap despite recent share-price volatility and Apple’s passage above the $5 trillion mark.

With only two weeks remaining, Polymarket identifies earnings surprises and macroeconomic shifts as potential forces that could change the ranking. It assigns much lower odds to Alphabet, Microsoft and other contenders, interpreting the pricing as confidence in NVIDIA’s AI leadership and a more limited opportunity for Apple to move ahead before the deadline.

What it means for prediction markets

• Keep the deadlines separate: The end-of-October and end-of-December books address different outcomes; probabilities from one should not be presented as prices for the other.
• The probability discrepancy is material: The snapshot lists Nvidia at 79%, while the accompanying commentary cites 64%. Neither should be silently substituted for the other.
• Apple remains the principal challenger in the supplied snapshot: Its 23% figure sits alongside Nvidia’s 79%; those two figures alone total 102%, so they should not be treated as a normalized two-company probability split.