Will Trump pardon anyone by...? prices December 31 at 82% and October 31 at 68% in a newly created market

A newly created Polymarket market tracking whether Trump will pardon anyone by specified deadlines puts December 31 at 82% and October 31 at 68%, according to the board snapshot published Oct 15, 2026 at 12:39 PM ET. The later deadline carries a 14-percentage-point premium.

The snapshot led coverage after a 15-minute period without a significant new platform headline. The prices capture expectations about the timing of another pardon, rather than a reported new clemency decision.

Clemency activity provides the backdrop

According to polymarket.com, Trump has continued using his constitutional pardon authority throughout his second term. Batches of clemency grants in 2025 and 2026 have covered Jan. 6 cases, white-collar offenders, public officials facing corruption charges and less prominent convictions, including Clean Air Act violations.

The platform’s account includes October 2026 pardons announced at a rally for diesel mechanics. It also describes continuing grants connected to political allies or supporters, frequently without the standard Justice Department review.

Timing is the central question

According to polymarket.com, congressional probes have scrutinized cabinet influence in particular cases. Trump has also indicated that he is open to further pardons for administration figures before the November midterms.

That backdrop makes the cadence of future grants central to the market. Both quoted deadlines are priced above 50%, but the higher December 31 price reflects a stronger expectation of a pardon over the longer window. The supplied material does not include the market’s detailed resolution rules.

What it means for prediction markets

• The deadline spread matters: December 31 stands at 82%, compared with 68% for October 31—a 14-percentage-point difference between the two windows.
• This is a snapshot, not a price trend: The supplied figures describe a newly created market and do not establish how expectations have changed.
• Resolution details remain important: The background discusses both pardons and broader clemency grants. Without the detailed rules, it is not possible to determine which actions would qualify for settlement.