2026 Heisman Trophy: Jeremiah Smith remains the massive Polymarket favorite at 57%

Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith holds a 57% probability in Polymarket’s 2026 Heisman Trophy market, according to on3.com. The update, published Oct 15, 2026 at 12:39 PM ET, places him well ahead of Miami quarterback Darian Mensah at 12%.

Smith extends his lead

Smith’s probability increased 6 percentage points from 51% last week. The move followed a 93-yard, two-touchdown performance against Maryland, according to on3.com.

The latest pricing leaves a 45-percentage-point gap between Smith and Mensah. Smith remains the clear market favorite after Week 6 of the season.

A limited view of the field

The available summary also references an Oregon State wide receiver, but cuts off before identifying the player or providing a market probability. The full on3.com article was unavailable, so the supplied material does not establish pricing for the rest of the field.

What it means for prediction markets

• Smith’s rise from 51% to 57% shows a strengthening market assessment following the Maryland game, though the supplied reporting does not establish what drove individual trades.
• Mensah’s 12% probability puts him substantially behind Smith, rather than suggesting a close contest between the two named candidates.
• The available figures provide a snapshot of market expectations—not a confirmed award outcome—and do not show trading volume, liquidity or the full field.