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San Francisco leads Kalshi’s Super Bowl LXI market as trading tops $211.8 million

Buffalo is priced at 11 percent and Kansas City at nine percent in the market, which pays one dollar per winning contract. The figures were verified on November 1 as Kalshi's trending board for Sunday led with the Raiders against Jets and Vikings against Lions games.

Kalshi’s market for the Super Bowl LXI winner has exceeded $211.8 million in traded volume, with San Francisco the favorite at 16 percent, according to Elite Sports NY.

Buffalo and Kansas City trail the leader

Buffalo is priced at 11 percent and Kansas City at nine percent. Those figures put San Francisco five percentage points ahead of Buffalo and seven ahead of Kansas City, though its price remains well below a majority probability.

The market pays one dollar for each winning contract. The quoted percentages describe the market’s pricing, not a confirmed outcome.

November 1 snapshot

The figures were verified on November 1, according to Elite Sports NY. The report was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 5:45 AM ET, making the prices a dated snapshot rather than an indication of subsequent trading.

Kalshi’s Sunday trending board was led by the Raiders against Jets and Vikings against Lions games. Those individual-game markets featured alongside the longer-horizon Super Bowl winner market.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A favorite, not a likely majority outcome: San Francisco leads at 16 percent, leaving substantial implied probability with other possible winners.
  • Volume and probability measure different things: More than $211.8 million traded describes market activity; it does not establish confidence in San Francisco winning.
  • Timing matters: The 16 percent, 11 percent and nine percent prices were verified on November 1 and should be read in that context.
  • Settlement is outcome-dependent: Each winning contract pays one dollar, distinguishing the final payout from the market’s current pricing.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Elite Sports NY
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