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San Francisco leads Kalshi’s Super Bowl field as trading exceeds $211.8 million

Elite Sports NY reported that more than 211.8 million dollars has been traded on Kalshi's winner market for Super Bowl LXI, with the San Francisco 49ers listed as the favorite at 16 percent implied probability. The figure was published on November 1 as part of its NFL Week 8 coverage.

Kalshi’s market for the winner of Super Bowl LXI has recorded more than $211.8 million in trading, according to Elite Sports NY.

The San Francisco 49ers held the leading position at an implied probability of 16 percent. That made San Francisco the favorite in the reported snapshot, but still left its probability well below 50 percent.

A snapshot from Week 8 coverage

Elite Sports NY published the figures on November 1 as part of its NFL Week 8 coverage. The report was timestamped Nov 1, 2026, at 9:15 AM ET.

The available summary gives neither probabilities for other teams nor earlier readings for San Francisco. It therefore establishes the market leader and trading total at that point, rather than showing how either had changed.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Favorite does not mean likely winner: San Francisco’s 16 percent implied probability placed it first in the field without making a championship the market’s more-likely-than-not outcome.
  • Volume and probability measure different things: The more than $211.8 million figure describes trading across the winner market, not the amount backing the 49ers.
  • Timing matters: These figures are a November 1 snapshot; the supplied reporting does not establish a price trend.
KalshiNFLInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Elite Sports NY
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Elite Sports NY”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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