Spider-Man at 92 Percent: The Box-Office Race Ended Before the Challenger Opened
On Halloween night, with two months of the year still to run, the market for 2026 at the movies is effectively settled. Polymarket's "Highest grossing movie in 2026?" contract, open since November 12, 2025, has traded $17.8 million across 14 possible winners, and it prices Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 92 percent.
The challenger is not close. Avengers: Doomsday sits at about 9 percent, while Wicked: For Good and Wuthering Heights are both under 1 percent. That gap holds even though Doomsday is tracking toward $100 million in presales alone, outpacing Spider-Man's presales by 67 percent in the tracking cited on the market page.
The calendar is the trade. The market resolves on Box Office Mojo's domestic calendar gross for 2026, so only money a film earns by December 31 counts. Spider-Man opened on July 29 and has had months to bank its total. Doomsday opens in December and gets roughly two weeks inside the window, no matter how large its opening weekend is.
The price tells the year's story. Spider-Man traded at just 32 percent on March 12, climbed through 83 percent in late October, and now sits at 92. A Nintendo sequel that once contended fell from 46 percent to 1 percent between March 13 and July 27. Final settlement waits for the December 31 data, due by January 7, 2027.
A movie question drawing $17.8 million is the point. Culture is no longer a side board on prediction markets; on the biggest film question of the year, the crowd has already called the winner.
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