From 27% to the Lead: Israel's $82 Million Market Flipped
Before Israel voted on October 27, the market had a clear favorite. On Polymarket, Gadi Eizenkot stood at 58% to be the next prime minister and Benjamin Netanyahu at 27%. Kalshi told the same story, at 52% for Eizenkot against 28% for Netanyahu, with no other candidate close.
The votes changed the board. Netanyahu now leads the same Polymarket market at 43%, with Eizenkot at 35%, in a market that has traded $82.2 million across 19 outcomes since it opened on November 14, 2025. DeFi Rate's movers board puts Netanyahu up 15 points in seven days, from 28% to 43%.
The market is not settled, because the job goes to whoever is sworn in, and that takes 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats. Neither bloc had a clear path to 61 in the final polls. Official results are due November 4, and the leader chosen then gets 28 days to form a government, plus up to 14 more.
The flip also drew scrutiny. Polymarket is investigating hundreds of accounts created less than an hour before polls closed at 10 p.m. in Jerusalem, Casino.org reported on October 30. The fresh wallets jointly netted over $100,000 after exit polls favored Netanyahu, one account turned $14,000 staked 12 minutes before the close into $42,000, and analysts at Polysights put potential payouts from fresh wallets at over $700,000.
It is a clean test of what these markets price: not vote share, but coalition math after the count. The $82 million board got the favorite wrong before the vote and repriced in days. Whether it also had to police its own tape is now part of the story.
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