Large election wagers hit Polymarket and Kalshi after polls close
Reuters, citing analytics firm BETINT, reports traders poured more than 4 million dollars into last-ditch bets minutes after the first polls closed at 6 p.m. ET, led by a single 951,198 dollar Polymarket wager on Democrats taking the House, while nearly 934,000 dollars in election bets hit Kalshi in a single second.
Election betting drew more than 4 million dollars within minutes of the first polls closing at 6 p.m. ET, according to Reuters, citing analytics firm BETINT. The report was published on Nov 3, 2026, at 11:30 PM ET.
A large House bet leads the activity
A single Polymarket wager of 951,198 dollars on Democrats taking the House led the burst of activity, according to Reuters. That figure represents the size of the wager, not the market’s assessed probability of a Democratic win.
Kalshi also saw concentrated election betting: nearly 934,000 dollars in wagers arrived in a single second, Reuters reported, citing BETINT.
Timing matters more than volume alone
The figures capture betting immediately after the first polls closed, rather than after all voting had ended. The supplied reporting does not identify the specific Kalshi contracts involved or provide prices before and after the wagers.
That leaves a distinction between the reported scale of trading and its effect on election expectations. The amounts establish substantial activity in a brief window, but do not establish how far market probabilities moved.
What it means for prediction markets
- Direction is clear for the Polymarket wager: The 951,198 dollar bet backed Democrats taking the House; the direction of the Kalshi bets is not specified.
- Volume is not probability: Neither the more than 4 million dollars in activity nor the nearly 934,000 dollars placed on Kalshi in one second establishes a change in implied odds.
- The timing anchors the evidence: These figures describe the minutes after the first polls closed at 6 p.m. ET, not a final market assessment of the election.
Sources & attribution
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