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Kalshi-based Senate simulations favor Democratic control, with Michigan the key race

PredictionMarketsPicks ran 10,000 simulations using Kalshi Senate race prices as of November 1 at 10:37 PM ET and found Democrats and independents control the Senate in 75.1 percent of outcomes. The simulator identifies Michigan as the race that moves control most, with the Democrat called at 78.3 percent in the Michigan model.

Democrats and independents secured Senate control in 75.1 percent of 10,000 simulated outcomes, according to PredictionMarketsPicks. The simulation produced a median result of 53 to 47.

Market prices underpin the projection

PredictionMarketsPicks used Kalshi Senate race prices as of November 1 at 10:37 PM ET to run the simulations. Its report was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 10:45 PM ET.

The results describe the simulator’s distribution of outcomes using that price snapshot. The 75.1 percent figure is a modeled probability of control, rather than a reported price for a Senate-control contract.

Michigan carries the greatest control sensitivity

Michigan was identified as the race that most affected Senate control in the simulator, according to PredictionMarketsPicks. Its Michigan model assigned the Democrat a 78.3 percent probability.

That makes Michigan the central race to watch within this particular simulation. The supplied summary does not detail the modeling assumptions or explain how changes in individual race prices translate into changes in the control probability.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Distinguish model output from market pricing: The 75.1 percent control estimate comes from 10,000 simulations informed by Kalshi race prices.
  • Keep the timestamp in view: The estimate reflects prices as of November 1 at 10:37 PM ET, not subsequent market moves.
  • Track Michigan’s influence: The simulator identifies Michigan as the largest driver of control, with the Democrat at 78.3 percent in its race model.
  • Treat the median as a summary: The 53 to 47 result is the midpoint of the simulated distribution, not a guaranteed seat outcome.
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