Democrats retain Senate market advantage as early exit polls land
The Prediction Network reports in its 5:30 p.m. ET update that Senate race prices held where they were at 4:30 p.m. ET after the first exit polls showed President Trump at 38 percent approval, with Texas the most traded race as James Talarico held about 73 percent on more than 92 million dollars traded.
The first exit polls brought little movement in Senate prediction markets, according to The Prediction Network. Kalshi’s probability of Democratic Senate control slipped just 1 percentage point to 73 percent.
Early polling leaves race prices steady
In its 5:30 p.m. ET update, The Prediction Network said individual Senate race prices remained at their 4:30 p.m. ET levels. The report was published on Nov 3, 2026, at 6:30 PM ET.
The initial exit polls put President Trump’s approval at 38 percent. That reading coincided with largely unchanged race pricing, rather than a broad repricing of the Senate contests.
Texas leads trading activity
Texas was the most traded Senate race, according to The Prediction Network. James Talarico held at about 73 percent, with more than 92 million dollars traded in the race.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 1-percentage-point decline in Kalshi’s Senate-control market left Democrats at 73 percent, a limited adjustment after the first exit polls.
- Individual race prices were unchanged between 4:30 p.m. ET and 5:30 p.m. ET, distinguishing their stability from the small move in the chamber-control contract.
- Texas led trading activity, but its more than 92 million dollars in volume measures participation—not certainty about Talarico’s outcome.
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