Peltola’s 71 percent market odds contrast with narrow Alaska polling lead

According to Action Network, Mary Peltola was priced at 71 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket in Alaska’s Senate race against Republican Dan Sullivan. The report was published Nov 3, 2026, at 7:15 PM ET.

Market confidence and the polling margin

The matching prices on the two exchanges put Peltola firmly ahead in market expectations. The final Times/Siena poll, however, showed a narrower contest: Peltola led Sullivan 48 to 46.

Those figures measure different things. The poll describes candidate support, while the market prices reflect expectations about the outcome. The two-point polling advantage therefore should not be read as directly equivalent to the 71 percent market assessment.

Certification hurdle removed, late close remains

According to Action Network, a federal judge on Sunday dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit that could have delayed certification of the result. The dismissal removed that potential source of delay.

Alaska’s voting schedule still matters for the broader Senate-control market. Polls in the state’s Aleutian Islands close at 1 a.m. ET—the last polls in the country to close. If Alaska determines Senate control, that market could remain unresolved until Wednesday.

What it means for prediction markets

• Aligned expectations: Kalshi and Polymarket both priced Peltola at 71 percent, despite a final Times/Siena lead of 48 to 46.
• Distinct timing risks: The dismissed lawsuit concerned a possible certification delay; the late poll closing presents a separate timing issue.
• Conditional Senate-control exposure: An unresolved control market into Wednesday is a possibility if Alaska proves decisive, not a certainty.