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Democrats heavily favored in early post-close congressional market pricing

Polyguana reports its live board after the first polls closed at 6 p.m. ET prices Democrats at 83 percent for the Senate on Polymarket and Limitless and 81 percent on Kalshi, and at 98 percent for the House on Polymarket and Limitless and 97 percent on Kalshi. The Senate board shows 23.1 million dollars traded and the House board 50.7 million dollars, with venues agreeing within 3 points on the Senate and 2 points on the House.

According to Polyguana, prediction markets favored Democratic control of both chambers in the first live reading after polls began closing at 6 p.m. ET. Its update, published Nov 3, 2026 at 7:15 PM ET, showed stronger odds for the House than for the Senate.

Congressional control across venues

Democrats’ probability of winning Senate control stood at 83 percent on Polymarket and Limitless, compared with 81 percent on Kalshi, according to Polyguana.

For House control, Polymarket and Limitless each priced Democrats at 98 percent, while Kalshi showed 97 percent. Those prices indicate a heavily favored outcome, not a confirmed election result.

Seat expectations and trading activity

Polyguana’s reported expected seat totals were 52.8 Democratic Senate seats and 252.1 House seats. These figures describe market expectations rather than completed counts.

The Senate board showed 23.1 million dollars traded, while the House board showed 50.7 million dollars. Polyguana reported agreement across venues within 3 points for Senate control and 2 points for House control.

What it means for prediction markets

  • House pricing was more decisive: Democratic control was priced at 97–98 percent across the three venues, versus 81–83 percent for the Senate.
  • Venue differences were limited: The reported prices showed broadly aligned expectations across Polymarket, Limitless and Kalshi.
  • Timing matters: This was an early post-close snapshot. Control probabilities and expected seat totals remained market estimates, not certified outcomes.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Polyguana
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