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Democratic seat expectations rise as House control odds stay near certain

Polyguana reports House control remains at 99 percent for Democrats on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with 53.8 million dollars traded, while expected Democratic seats have risen to 265.4 against 169.0 Republican, up from 258.2 expected seats in the 8:45 p.m. ET read. Democrats lead in 263 districts in the live board.

According to Polyguana’s Nov 3, 2026 update, published at 9:30 PM ET, both Polymarket and Kalshi continued to price Democratic control of the House at 99 percent. Reported trading volume stood at 53.8 million dollars.

Seat expectations move higher

The expected Democratic seat count reached 265.4, compared with 169.0 for Republicans, according to Polyguana. The Democratic figure had increased from 258.2 in the 8:45 p.m. ET reading.

That shift raised the projected size of the Democratic delegation without changing the reported probability of the party winning control. The control markets on both platforms remained at the same near-certain level.

District leads and projected totals

Democrats were ahead in 263 districts on the live board, Polyguana reported. That district-lead tally was separate from the expected Democratic seat total of 265.4.

The update therefore showed movement in the anticipated seat distribution, even as the headline control probabilities held steady.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Control and seat totals tell different stories: Democratic control remained priced at 99 percent on both platforms, while expected Democratic seats rose from 258.2 to 265.4.
  • Live leads are not final wins: The 263 districts with Democratic leads describe the live board, not a confirmed seat count.
  • Near certainty is not certainty: The reported 99 percent probability still leaves room for an outcome other than Democratic control.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Polyguana
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