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Hinojosa reaches 93 percent as Texas governor market reverses direction

Polyguana reports the Texas governor market now prices Democrat Gina Hinojosa at 93 percent as a safe Democratic flip against Republican Greg Abbott, who was priced at 65 percent on Kalshi and 64 percent on Polymarket in the Election Day morning read. Texas is one of 36 governorships on the ballot tonight.

The Texas governor market has swung toward Democrat Gina Hinojosa, with Polyguana putting her at 93 percent against Republican Greg Abbott in an update published Nov 3, 2026, at 9:30 PM ET.

The evening reading marks a reversal from Election Day morning, when Abbott was priced at 65 percent on Kalshi and 64 percent on Polymarket, according to Polyguana.

From Republican favorite to Democratic advantage

Polyguana characterized the latest pricing as pointing to a safe Democratic flip. The supplied summary does not identify which platform carried Hinojosa’s 93 percent price, limiting direct comparison with either morning reading.

Texas is one of 36 governorships on the ballot tonight. The reported shift captures a substantial change in market expectations, but the material provided contains no vote totals or declared result.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The favorite has changed: Abbott led the morning pricing on both named platforms; Polyguana’s evening update places Hinojosa at 93 percent.
  • Platform comparisons remain incomplete: Without a venue for the latest figure, the summary does not establish an exact same-market price move.
  • Pricing is not a result: The strong Democratic probability reflects the reported market assessment, not a confirmed election outcome.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Polyguana
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