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Democratic Senate odds reach 87.2 percent as Kansas leads weekly moves

DeFi Rate reports its 7:03 p.m. ET observation averages Democrats at 87.2 percent for Senate control across Kalshi and Polymarket, with Polymarket at 88.5 percent and Kalshi's constructed price at 85.9 percent, up 22 points in seven days. Its biggest-moves board now shows Kansas Senate up 34 points in seven days to 74 percent and Michigan Senate up 16 points to 86 percent.

According to DeFi Rate, Democrats’ average probability of controlling the Senate reached 87.2 percent across Kalshi and Polymarket in its Nov 3, 2026 observation at 7:03 p.m. ET. The update was published at 7:30 PM ET.

Senate pricing differs across venues

Polymarket put Democratic Senate control at 88.5 percent, compared with Kalshi’s constructed price of 85.9 percent. DeFi Rate reported a seven-day increase of 22 points for the cross-venue Senate average.

The update’s headline rounded the Senate reading to 87 percent and placed House control at 98 percent. The supplied summary did not provide a venue-level breakdown for the House figure.

Kansas and Michigan register gains

DeFi Rate’s biggest-moves board showed Kansas Senate rising 34 points over seven days to 74 percent, while Michigan Senate gained 16 points to reach 86 percent. The supplied summary did not identify which party or candidate those individual-race prices represented.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 87.2 percent Senate average combines different readings: Polymarket’s 88.5 percent and Kalshi’s constructed 85.9 percent. It is not a single venue’s price.
  • Kansas recorded the larger seven-day move of the two highlighted Senate races, while Michigan had the higher reported probability.
  • These figures describe the 7:03 p.m. ET observation, not election outcomes. The limited House detail and unspecified sides of the state-level contracts constrain direct comparisons.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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