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Sal Stewart win NL ROTY priced at 77.0% on Kalshi, down 4.0 points, on $822K traded

PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Stewart rookie contract among its downward sports moves, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead. It has zero hits…

Sal Stewart’s Kalshi contract to win NL ROTY was priced at 77.0%, down 4.0 probability points, with $822K traded, in the update published Oct 25, 2026 · 11:39 PM ET. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among declining sports markets on its movers board.

The listing records a change in market pricing, but the supplied material does not identify a Stewart-specific development behind it. The decline alone therefore does not establish why traders marked down his chances.

How the move is measured

According to PredictionBubbles, the board compares probabilities over 24 hours and refreshes every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page says its venue data were read on 26 Oct 2026, 03:37 UTC.

Markets are ordered by the size of their probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage changes. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect that ranking, so Stewart’s $822K traded figure is separate from the measure that placed the contract among the downward movers.

Limits of the snapshot

PredictionBubbles says the board ranks 1,999 markets lasting longer than 14 days and excludes same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify; resolved markets and those without a sufficiently old baseline are omitted.

That makes the listing a filtered view of repricing, not a comprehensive ranking of sports outcomes. Stewart’s contract remained priced above an even chance despite the decline, while the supplied material offers no order-book detail or explanation of the trading behind the move.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The change is 4.0 probability points, not a 4.0% relative decline. The distinction matters when comparing moves across contracts with different starting probabilities.
  • Price and turnover answer different questions. The 77.0% price describes the market’s implied probability; $822K traded does not by itself establish current liquidity.
  • The catalyst remains unverified. The board documents repricing, but the supplied reporting does not connect Stewart’s move to a specific news event.
PredictionMarketsKalshi

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/

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