Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026 priced at 59.5% on Polymarket, down 4.0 points, on $1.4M traded

The Polymarket contract for Democrats to win the Maine Senate race in 2026 was priced at 59.5%, down 4.0 probability points over 24 hours, with $1.4M traded. According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, the contract was among the declining markets in its politics/elections category.

The price still put a Democratic victory above 50%, despite the downward adjustment. The supplied material does not identify a specific poll, campaign development or other event behind the move.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by the size of their probability-point changes over 24 hours, rather than their relative percentage changes. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 26 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC.

According to PredictionBubbles, the ranking covers 2,029 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify, and volume and liquidity do not affect their position in the movement ranking.

Trading context and limits

The $1.4M traded figure provides context for the Maine contract, but the supplied headline does not specify its measurement period. It should therefore not be treated as the amount traded during the 24-hour decline, nor as a measure of available liquidity.

The board records a change in market pricing, not an independently established change in the election’s prospects. Without contract-specific reporting on the catalyst or order-book depth, the evidence supports a narrower conclusion: traders were pricing a Democratic win lower than a day earlier.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level differ: The contract fell 4.0 probability points, but its 59.5% price