Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election priced at 76.5% on Polymarket, up 14.0 points, on $396K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Chow Toronto contract among its upward political moves ahead of the Oct. 26 vote, in a political/election category distinct…
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Olivia Chow’s contract to win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election was priced at 76.5% on Polymarket, up 14.0 percentage points, with $396K traded, in the update published Oct 26, 2026 at 12:39 AM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board placed the Chow contract among rising political markets ahead of the Oct. 26 vote. The listing reflects a change in traders’ pricing, not an election result.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles ranks moves over a 24-hour window using changes in implied probability measured in percentage points, rather than relative percentage gains. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot records venue data read on 26 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC.
The board’s ranking covers 2,029 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify, according to PredictionBubbles, while short-lived fixtures are excluded to keep settlement-driven swings from dominating the list.
What the figures leave unanswered
The supplied material does not identify a poll, announcement or other event behind Chow’s repricing. PredictionBubbles notes that price changes can reflect news, orders in thin markets or traders responding to one another, but it does not establish which explanation applies here.
The $396K traded provides activity context, but the supplied headline does not specify its measurement period. It also does not establish order-book depth. PredictionBubbles treats trading volume and liquidity as context rather than inputs to its movement ranking.
What it means for prediction markets
Direction and level are separate signals: the 14.0-point rise describes the change over the board’s 24-hour window; 76.5% describes the reported market-implied probability.
The catalyst remains unverified: the supplied reporting supports a repricing, not a conclusion about what caused it.
Timing matters: with the vote on Oct. 26, the figures should be read as a dated snapshot rather than a final outcome or a continuously current quote.