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S&P 500 holds wide lead in Polymarket’s 2026 asset contest

The Polymarket market asking which asset performs best in 2026 prices the S&P 500 at 82 percent, up one point, with 976,400 dollars traded. Bitcoin is priced at 15 percent and gold at 5 percent, and the market runs to December 31, 2026.

The S&P 500 is priced at 82 percent in Polymarket’s contest over which asset will perform best in 2026, according to predictDEX. Bitcoin stands at 15 percent, while gold is at 5 percent.

The figures were reported on Nov 1, 2026, at 1:45 PM ET. The market runs to December 31, 2026.

Equities extend their advantage

The S&P 500’s price rose one percentage point, according to predictDEX. The summary does not specify the period over which that change occurred or provide corresponding price changes for Bitcoin and gold.

Trading volume in the market totals $976,400. The reported prices place the S&P 500 well ahead of both alternatives, though they reflect market expectations rather than a settled result.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Clear favorite: At 82 percent, the S&P 500 has a substantial pricing lead over Bitcoin at 15 percent and gold at 5 percent.
  • Prices need context: The three reported percentages total 102 percent, so they should not be presented as a probability distribution summing to 100 percent.
  • Resolution remains ahead: The market runs to December 31, 2026. The supplied summary does not include the detailed performance-comparison or settlement rules.
PolymarketBitcoinGoldInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    predictDEX
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