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Vance leads 2028 tracker as platforms differ on closest challengers

Sikt Intelligence's 2028 tracker prices JD Vance first at 20 percent on Kalshi and 19 percent on Polymarket, followed by Gavin Newsom at 14 and 12 percent and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10 and 13 percent, with prices refreshed from both platforms on November 1.

JD Vance holds the highest price in Sikt Intelligence’s 2028 presidential tracker, at 20 percent on Kalshi and 19 percent on Polymarket, according to the outlet.

The tracker uses prices refreshed from both platforms on November 1. The report was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET.

Platforms split on the next two contenders

Gavin Newsom is priced at 14 percent on Kalshi and 12 percent on Polymarket, according to Sikt Intelligence. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stands at 10 percent and 13 percent, respectively.

Those prices put Newsom ahead of Ocasio-Cortez on Kalshi but reverse their order on Polymarket. Vance leads both candidates on each platform, making his top position consistent across the two venues despite their differing assessments of the challengers.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Agreement at the top: Both platforms price Vance first, with a one-percentage-point difference between his Kalshi and Polymarket prices.
  • Different challenger rankings: Newsom leads Ocasio-Cortez by four percentage points on Kalshi, while Ocasio-Cortez leads Newsom by one percentage point on Polymarket.
  • A dated snapshot: The figures reflect the November 1 refresh, rather than a record of how prices have changed over time.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Sikt Intelligence
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