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Kalshi traders lift pricing for S and P 500 year-end bands

PredictionMarketPicks, in its 5:00 PM EST snapshot on November 4, ranks the contract on the S and P 500 finishing between 8000 and 8199.99 on December 31, 2026 as the most-traded economics contract on Kalshi at 17 cents, up 6 cents in 24 hours, on 16,000 contracts traded and 317,000 in open interest. The next band, 7800 to 7999.99, is priced at 27 cents, up 5 cents.

PredictionMarketPicks’ 5:00 PM EST snapshot on November 4 places the Kalshi contract for the S and P 500 to finish between 8000 and 8199.99 on December 31, 2026 at 17 cents. The price rose 6 cents over 24 hours.

Trading activity and neighboring range

According to PredictionMarketPicks, the 8000 to 8199.99 band ranked as Kalshi’s most-traded economics contract in the snapshot, with 16,000 contracts traded and open interest of 317,000.

The neighboring 7800 to 7999.99 band was priced at 27 cents, an increase of 5 cents. It remained 10 cents above the higher range, despite the latter’s larger daily gain.

The supplied report was published on Nov 4, 2026 at 5:15 PM ET. Its pricing and activity figures describe the earlier snapshot, rather than subsequent trading.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Both year-end bands gained in price, but the 7800 to 7999.99 outcome remained more expensive than the 8000 to 8199.99 outcome.
  • The higher band’s trading rank, volume and open interest show substantial activity in that specific contract; they do not establish how prices moved across the full set of year-end outcomes.
  • These contracts concern the index’s finish on December 31, 2026, not whether it reaches either range before that date.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionMarketPicks
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