Kalshi’s 2028 presidential party contracts diverge as Republican price drops
PredictionMarketPicks, in the same 5:46 PM EST snapshot on November 4, lists the Republican party contract for the 2028 presidential election among the top politics movers, trading 22,000 contracts in 24 hours with 171,000 in open interest. The companion Democratic party contract rose 5 cents to 66 cents on 64,000 contracts traded.
The Kalshi contract on a Republican winning the presidency in 2028 fell 6 cents to 35 cents, according to PredictionMarketPicks. The move appeared in its November 4, 2026 snapshot at 5:46 PM EST.
The companion Democratic party contract gained 5 cents to reach 66 cents. The paired moves shifted pricing toward a Democratic victory, although the supplied figures do not identify what prompted the change.
Trading activity and outstanding positions
PredictionMarketPicks listed the Republican party contract among the leading politics movers. It recorded 22,000 contracts traded over 24 hours and open interest of 171,000.
The Democratic party contract recorded 64,000 contracts traded, exceeding the Republican contract’s reported volume. The supplied summary did not include Democratic open interest.
What it means for prediction markets
- Direction: Republican and Democratic prices moved in opposite directions in the same snapshot, with the Republican decline 1 cent larger than the Democratic gain.
- Activity: Democratic trading volume was higher, but the available figures do not establish why traders repriced either outcome.
- Pricing: The reported prices total 101 cents. Readers should distinguish these contract prices from a pair of probabilities that sum exactly to 100%.
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