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Kalshi’s December inflation threshold contract drops to 34 cents

PredictionMarketPicks, in the same 5:46 PM EST snapshot on November 4, lists the contract on the rate of CPI inflation being above 4.0 percent for the year ending in December 2026 as the second-biggest mover among economics markets, trading 500 contracts in 24 hours with 9,173 in open interest.

The Kalshi contract tied to CPI inflation exceeding 4.0 percent for the year ending in December 2026 fell 6 cents to 34 cents, according to PredictionMarketPicks.

Activity and positioning

PredictionMarketPicks ranked the contract as the second-biggest mover among economics markets in its 5:46 PM EST snapshot on November 4. The item was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 6:00 PM ET.

The snapshot showed 500 contracts traded over 24 hours and open interest of 9,173. Those figures describe trading activity and outstanding positions, rather than an inflation reading.

A lower price for the above-threshold outcome

The price decline marked a move away from the outcome specified by the contract: annual CPI inflation above 4.0 percent for the year ending in December 2026. The supplied material did not identify a catalyst for the change.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 34-cent price reflects market pricing of the above-4.0-percent outcome, not a reported CPI result.
  • The second-biggest-mover ranking places the decline in the context of economics markets tracked by PredictionMarketPicks.
  • Volume of 500 contracts and open interest of 9,173 provide context for participation, but do not explain what drove the 6-cent fall.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionMarketPicks
    Publisher
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    Source URL
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