Democratic Senate odds near 75% as markets await midterm voting

Reuters’ Nov. 3, 2026 global markets wrap put the probability of Democratic control of the Senate at around 75% on Polymarket and Kalshi, as financial markets traded cautiously ahead of the start of U.S. midterm voting.

The wrap, published at 2:54 AM ET, described Asian stocks moving slightly lower and oil prices stabilizing. Those moves provided the market backdrop to the election probabilities cited by Reuters.

Senate pricing ahead of the vote

The roughly 75% readings placed Democratic Senate control as the favored outcome on both prediction-market platforms. They were probabilities, however, rather than a settled election result.

The supplied summary does not include exact contract prices, trading volumes or earlier readings. It therefore offers a snapshot of expectations, but no basis for assessing how far those expectations had shifted or whether election positioning drove the broader market moves.

What it means for prediction markets

• Similar headline probabilities: Reuters cited Polymarket and Kalshi at around 75% for Democratic Senate control; the supplied material does not establish any precise difference between them.
• Timing matters: The figures appeared in coverage ahead of the start of voting, not as a measure of the eventual result.
• Cross-market conclusions are limited: Asian equity weakness and steadier oil prices accompanied the election backdrop, but the summary does not demonstrate a causal link.