Ricketts wager draws scrutiny over timing ahead of poll release

Researchers at Vanderbilt University identified a nearly 200,000 dollar Polymarket bet on Pete Ricketts winning re-election that was placed about an hour before a New York Times Siena poll was released, according to KuCoin.

The October 31 wager returned more than 77,000 dollars after the poll showed Ricketts leading. The timing of the trade is the focus of the researchers’ finding.

Polymarket investigates the trades

Polymarket said it had identified the trades and is investigating, according to KuCoin. Kalshi declined to comment.

The account, published Nov 7, 2026 · 9:15 AM ET, does not identify the bettor or establish whether they had access to the poll before its release. The timing and return alone do not establish wrongdoing.

What it means for prediction markets

• Poll-release timing is central: The roughly one-hour interval between the wager and publication makes access to information a key question, but the supplied account does not resolve it.
• The investigation remains open: Polymarket acknowledged identifying the trades; no findings or outcome were provided.
• A profitable trade is not proof of advance knowledge: The more than 77,000 dollar return documents the wager’s result, not what the bettor knew when placing it.