Timing audit puts market certainty ahead of election race calls

A post-election timing audit found that prediction markets assigned a 90% probability to eventual winners between 20 minutes and 3 hours before the corresponding race calls. The finding measures when prices reached that threshold, rather than simply whether markets picked the winner.

The Prediction Network’s board showed that pre-close favorites won 11 of the 13 races that had been called, according to its summary. That tally used prices as of about 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday.

Early signals, limited detail

The material, published Nov 4, 2026 at 5:24 PM ET, offers two distinct measures of midterm market performance: the success rate of favorites before closing and the lead time between a 90% market probability and a race call.

The supplied summary is incomplete and includes no source links. It does not identify the races, explain the audit’s methodology or establish whether the timing analysis covers exactly the same contests as the board’s tally.

What it means for prediction markets

• Timing and accuracy are separate tests. Reaching 90% ahead of a race call indicates an earlier strong market signal; the 11-of-13 tally measures how often pre-close favorites prevailed.
• The available evidence is bounded. The board’s score covers called races, while the missing race-level detail limits assessment of how broadly the timing result applies.