Kalshi and Polymarket favored winners across five highlighted statewide contests

A review by WisdomOfWallets found that prediction markets favored the eventual winners in nearly every major Senate and governor race it examined alongside late polls. The review was published Nov 4, 2026 · 7:15 PM ET.

Senate results aligned with market favorites

According to WisdomOfWallets, both Kalshi and Polymarket favored the Democrats who won the Texas, Maine, Michigan and Ohio Senate races.

The supplied summary identifies those four Senate contests but does not give their market probabilities or late-poll figures. It therefore supports a comparison of market favorites with winners, rather than a numerical assessment of markets against polling.

Acton won after strong market backing

In the Ohio governor race, Kalshi priced Amy Acton at 82 percent and Polymarket at 83 percent, according to WisdomOfWallets. Acton won.

Those prices show that both platforms strongly favored Acton, with a one-percentage-point difference between them. The summary does not specify when those prices were recorded.

What it means for prediction markets

• Both platforms favored the winners in all five contests highlighted in the summary: four Senate races and the Ohio governor race.
• Acton’s victory was consistent with her 82 percent and 83 percent market probabilities, but one outcome cannot establish whether those probabilities were well calibrated.
• The broader finding covers nearly every major race reviewed—not necessarily every major race held. Without the full review or polling figures, the summary does not establish how much markets outperformed late polls.