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Fable release odds retreat as November deadlines draw closer

The Polymarket market on the next Fable Model (5.2+) being released by November 19, 2026 fell 9.5 points to 61.0 percent, the biggest move on the PredictionBubbles tech board, on 38,000 dollars traded. The same model released by November 10 was priced at 47.0 percent, down 7.0 points.

Polymarket’s contract on whether the next Fable Model (5.2+) will be released by November 19, 2026 was priced at 61.0 percent, down 9.5 points, according to PredictionBubbles.

The update, published Nov 1, 2026 at 9:45 AM ET, identified that decline as the largest move on the PredictionBubbles tech board. Trading volume for the contract was 38,000 dollars.

Two deadlines, lower probabilities

The contract tracking a release of the same model by November 10 also fell. Its price stood at 47.0 percent after a 7.0-point decline, according to PredictionBubbles.

Both contracts therefore moved toward lower implied release probabilities, with the November 19 deadline recording the larger drop. The supplied summary did not identify a cause for either move or provide a confirmed release date.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The November 19 contract remained above 50 percent at 61.0 percent, while the November 10 contract was below that threshold at 47.0 percent.
  • The later deadline carried a 14.0-percentage-point premium, distinguishing expectations for the two release windows.
  • The 38,000 dollars traded provides activity context for the November 19 move, but the summary does not establish what drove the repricing.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
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    https://predictionbubbles.com
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