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Netanyahu wallet scrutiny follows sharp reversal in Israeli election markets

The Wall Street Journal reported that Kalshi and Polymarket traders favored Gadi Eisenkot as Israel's next prime minister before both positions collapsed after voting closed, and that several well-timed trades for Benjamin Netanyahu from newly created wallets have since come under investigation by Polymarket. The report put combined US election trading on the two platforms at about 400 million dollars this month through October 28, against more than 2.5 billion dollars in the same month of 2024.

Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket favored Gadi Eisenkot to become Israel’s next prime minister before those positions collapsed on both platforms after voting closed, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The newspaper also reported that Polymarket is investigating several well-timed trades backing Benjamin Netanyahu from newly created wallets. The report brings together two distinct issues: an abrupt reversal in election pricing and scrutiny of trading activity.

Election pricing and wallet activity

The Wall Street Journal’s account describes a sharp gap between traders’ preference before voting closed and the subsequent market moves. The supplied summary does not include contract prices or a more detailed timeline of the reversal.

The Netanyahu trades drew attention because of their timing and the newly created wallets involved, according to The Wall Street Journal. The summary provides no findings from Polymarket’s investigation, and the existence of an inquiry does not establish wrongdoing.

US election trading trails 2024

Separately, The Wall Street Journal put combined US election trading on Kalshi and Polymarket at about $400 million for the month through October 28. That compares with more than $2.5 billion in the same month of 2024.

Those figures describe US election trading, rather than activity in the Israeli election contracts. They provide a separate measure of participation on the two platforms, not an explanation for the Eisenkot positions’ collapse.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Prices remain uncertain forecasts: The reversal in Eisenkot positions illustrates how a market favorite can lose support abruptly after voting closes.
  • The investigation remains unresolved: Polymarket’s scrutiny of the Netanyahu trades is distinct from any finding about the wallets or their users.
  • Volume comparisons need context: The reported US election totals cover the month through October 28 versus the same month of 2024; they do not measure liquidity in the Israeli election markets.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Wall Street Journal
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