Polymarket gives strong odds to both November WTI price thresholds
Polymarket's finance board prices the November WTI crude oil market with the rise to 105 dollars outcome at 73 percent and the fall to 95 dollars outcome at 69 percent, on about 420,000 dollars traded. Its gold market for the end of December prices a rise to 4,500 dollars at 99 percent on about 2 million dollars traded.
According to Polymarket’s finance board, the November WTI crude oil market assigns a 73 percent probability to a rise to 105 dollars and a 69 percent probability to a fall to 95 dollars.
The snapshot, published Nov 2, 2026 at 3:30 AM ET, shows about 420,000 dollars traded in the oil market.
Two oil thresholds, one November window
The rise-to-105-dollars outcome is priced 4 percentage points above the fall-to-95-dollars outcome. Both carry implied probabilities above 50 percent, rather than presenting a simple choice between higher and lower prices.
The supplied summary does not include the market’s settlement rules. That limits conclusions about how the two outcomes relate, including whether both could resolve positively if oil crosses each threshold during November.
Gold outcome approaches certainty
Polymarket’s gold market for the end of December prices a rise to 4,500 dollars at 99 percent, according to the board. About 2 million dollars has been traded in that market.
The gold outcome carries a higher implied probability and the market has greater reported trading volume than the November WTI market. The different time horizons and missing contract details, however, limit direct comparisons.
What it means for prediction markets
- Contract wording matters: The WTI probabilities should not be treated as complementary odds without the settlement rules.
- Prices are not guarantees: Gold’s 99 percent reading indicates a heavily favored outcome, not a confirmed result.
- Volume provides context: The reported totals show more trading in the gold market, but do not establish the reliability of either market’s forecast.
Sources & attribution
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