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Iran invasion contract tops tracked trading with $76.2 million in volume

PicksByOdds, in its November 1 daily note updated November 2, says the Polymarket contract on whether the United States will invade Iran before 2027 is the most traded of the 443 markets it tracks across Kalshi, Polymarket and Limitless, with 76.2 million dollars in volume at 17 cents. The contract has 61 days left before it closes, and the site notes its price reflects genuine disagreement rather than longshot volume at 1 cent.

A Polymarket contract asking whether the United States will invade Iran before 2027 leads trading volume among the 443 markets tracked by PicksByOdds across Kalshi, Polymarket and Limitless, according to the site.

Volume leadership at 17 cents

PicksByOdds lists the contract’s volume at $76.2 million and its price at 17 cents. The figures come from its November 1 daily note, updated November 2.

The contract has 61 days remaining before it closes, according to PicksByOdds. Its leading position applies to the site’s tracked group, rather than necessarily to every contract available across the three platforms.

Disagreement rather than a near-zero price

PicksByOdds characterizes the 17-cent price as evidence of genuine disagreement over the outcome. It contrasts that pricing with volume in longshot contracts trading at 1 cent.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume and price tell different stories: The $76.2 million total places the contract first in the tracked group, while its 17-cent price does not make an invasion the favored outcome.
  • The comparison has a defined scope: The ranking covers 443 markets monitored across Kalshi, Polymarket and Limitless.
  • Time remains a key dimension: With 61 days until closing, the contract combines substantial recorded activity with a still-open window for the outcome.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    PicksByOdds
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