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Polymarket’s tracked leaders favor No on Iran invasion contract

PolyConsensus reports 105 of 125 tracked top Polymarket traders holding the market on a United States invasion of Iran before 2027 are on No, priced at 84 cents as of 09:26 UTC on November 4. It is the second-ranked consensus market on the board, with about 3.7 million dollars held on the No side.

According to PolyConsensus, 105 of 125 tracked top Polymarket traders holding positions in the market on a United States invasion of Iran before 2027 are on No.

The No side was priced at 84 cents as of 09:26 UTC on November 4. The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 4:30 AM ET.

Trader alignment and holdings

The contract ranks second among consensus markets on the PolyConsensus board, according to the outlet. That ranking describes its standing within the board, rather than establishing the likelihood of the underlying event.

About 3.7 million dollars is held on the No side, PolyConsensus reports. The trader count, holdings and price provide separate measures of positioning; the supplied summary does not show how those holdings are distributed among traders.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Strong alignment within the tracked group: 105 of 125 tracked top traders are on No. That finding applies to this group, not necessarily to all market participants.
  • A timestamped price: The 84-cent No price is a snapshot as of 09:26 UTC on November 4, not evidence of a price trend.
  • Resolution details remain unspecified: The summary identifies the deadline as before 2027 but does not provide the contract’s criteria for what constitutes an invasion.
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Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    PolyConsensus
    Publisher
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