Polymarket touts midterm accuracy as dozens of markets await settlement
Polymarket posted that 419 popular picks won in settled US midterm election markets, with 7 outcomes going the other way and 78 markets still pending settlement. It also said it priced 10 key elections at 99 percent probability a median of about 31 minutes ahead of CNN, Fox News and the Associated Press.
Polymarket said popular picks won in 98.4 percent of its settled US midterm election markets, according to Odaily. The figures describe resolved markets, with 78 still awaiting settlement.
Settled results and timing claims
The platform reported 419 winning popular picks and 7 outcomes that went the other way. Those results measure the success of the favored outcomes in settled markets, rather than a final tally across all its midterm markets.
In a separate timing comparison, Polymarket said it assigned a 99 percent probability to the eventual outcomes of 10 key elections a median of about 31 minutes before CNN, Fox News and the Associated Press, according to Odaily.
The two claims address different aspects of market performance: how often popular picks proved correct and how early prices indicated near-certainty in a selected set of elections.
An incomplete election scorecard
The update, reported on Nov 4, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET, leaves the broader assessment unfinished. The 78 markets pending settlement are not included in the reported settled-market success rate.
The supplied account does not identify the 10 key elections or explain how Polymarket defined popular picks. That limits how closely readers can evaluate the accuracy measure and the timing comparison.
What it means for prediction markets
- Settlement matters: The 98.4 percent figure applies to settled markets; the 78 pending markets leave the overall record incomplete.
- Accuracy is not calibration: A count of winning popular picks does not, by itself, establish whether probabilities accurately reflected the likelihood of outcomes.
- Timing is a separate measure: The claimed median lead of about 31 minutes concerns 10 key elections and should not be read as a platform-wide lead over news organizations.
Sources & attribution
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- Odaily
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