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Alito retirement contract drops to 13 percent as tracker confirms move

ProbCast, in its board updated at 10:10 PM ET on November 4, grades the move as confirmed, backed by deep liquidity and a tight spread. It was among 31 confirmed moves the tracker scored across live markets in the last 24 hours.

A Polymarket contract on whether Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by December 31, 2026 fell 14 points to 13 percent, according to ProbCast.

The move concerns the timing of a retirement announcement—not whether Alito will have left his position by that deadline.

ProbCast flags market support

ProbCast classified the decline as confirmed in its board update at 10:10 PM ET on November 4. The tracker cited deep liquidity and a tight spread as support for that assessment.

The contract was one of 31 confirmed moves ProbCast scored across live markets over the last 24 hours. The report was published on Nov 4, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 14-point decline places the contract at 13 percent, marking a lower market-implied likelihood of an announcement by December 31, 2026.
  • Deep liquidity and a tight spread support ProbCast’s classification of the price move; they do not establish whether Alito will announce his retirement.
  • The supplied reporting identifies no catalyst for the decline, leaving the reason for the repricing unspecified.
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Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    ProbCast
    Publisher
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