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Bitcoin’s five-minute Polymarket US results show nearly even directional split

Polymarket US opens a new five-minute Bitcoin Up or Down window 288 times a day, while Kalshi lists Bitcoin windows of 15 minutes and longer and none at five minutes. The ledger is built from snapshots of the Polymarket US public order book taken every few seconds.

According to PredictionMarketsPicks, Up was the settlement outcome in 49.6 percent of 4,060 five-minute Bitcoin windows on Polymarket US from October 22 to November 5. The reported share puts Up outcomes just below half of the observed windows.

The report, published November 5, 2026, at 4:45 PM ET, draws on a ledger assembled from snapshots of the Polymarket US public order book captured every few seconds.

Different intervals across venues

Polymarket US starts a fresh five-minute Bitcoin Up or Down window 288 times daily, according to PredictionMarketsPicks. That cadence creates repeated opportunities to observe settlement outcomes over short intervals.

Kalshi, by contrast, offers Bitcoin windows lasting 15 minutes or longer and does not list five-minute windows. The reported Polymarket US results therefore have no matching five-minute product on Kalshi for a direct comparison.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Settlement frequency is not a trading return. The 49.6 percent Up share describes outcomes in the reported sample; it does not establish profitability without information about entry prices and costs.
  • Window length matters. Comparing these results with Kalshi’s Bitcoin markets would involve different time horizons, rather than equivalent contracts.
  • The ledger’s construction is relevant. The findings rely on order-book snapshots taken every few seconds, a methodological detail readers should retain when assessing the reported sample.
KalshiPolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionMarketsPicks
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