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Bitcoin up outcomes fall just below half in Polymarket US sample

PredictionMarketPicks' ledger of Polymarket US's 5-minute Bitcoin up-or-down windows, which open every five minutes for 288 a day and settle on the Chainlink BTC/USD…

Polymarket US’s five-minute Bitcoin up-or-down markets settled up in 49.4% of 3,324 windows since Oct. 22, according to the PredictionMarketPicks ledger summarized in the supplied material.

The snapshot was published on Nov. 3, 2026, at 3:24 AM ET. Its headline result places the share of up settlements slightly below half of the recorded windows.

Five-minute cadence, specified settlement reference

These Bitcoin markets open every five minutes, producing 288 windows a day. The ledger tracks outcomes across that repeated schedule rather than a single daily Bitcoin result.

The supplied summary identifies Chainlink BTC/USD as the settlement reference. No source links or full article were provided, limiting the available detail on the ledger and its results.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Outcome frequency is not a forecast: The 49.4% figure describes recorded settlements; it does not establish the probability of an up result in the next window.
  • Prices are missing: The supplied material contains no contract pricing, so the settlement share alone cannot show whether market probabilities matched outcomes.
  • Settlement terms matter: Chainlink BTC/USD is the identified reference for these windows, making that benchmark central to interpreting the recorded results.
PredictionMarketsKalshiPolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Polymarketpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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