Bitcoin’s five-minute outcomes split evenly in Polymarket US settlement ledger
PredictionMarketsPicks' ledger of Polymarket US 5-minute Bitcoin windows holds 3,032 settled windows from October 22 to November 2, of which 50.0 percent settled Up, with a median move of 4.2 basis points. Across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP the ledger holds 12,123 settled windows, with a new Bitcoin window opening every five minutes.
According to PredictionMarketsPicks, 50.0 percent of the 3,032 settled Polymarket US five-minute Bitcoin windows in its ledger resolved Up between October 22 and November 2.
The summary, published Nov 2, 2026 at 12:15 AM ET, puts the median move for those Bitcoin windows at 4.2 basis points.
Settlement record spans four cryptocurrencies
The ledger contains 12,123 settled windows across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP, according to PredictionMarketsPicks. The supplied summary gives an Up settlement share and median move for Bitcoin only.
A new Bitcoin window opens every five minutes. The Bitcoin figures therefore describe repeated short-duration outcomes over the stated period, rather than a single market covering the full interval.
What it means for prediction markets
- An even historical split: The reported 50.0 percent Up share describes settled Bitcoin windows in the ledger; it does not establish the probability of the next outcome.
- Movement size is a separate measure: The 4.2-basis-point median move adds context beyond the direction of settlement, but the summary provides no distribution of moves.
- Cross-asset comparisons remain limited: Although the ledger includes Ethereum, Solana and XRP, the supplied figures do not show their individual settlement patterns.
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