Democratic governor odds stand out as California markets draw trading activity

Action Network’s Election Eve snapshot puts Ohio Democrat Amy Acton at 82 percent and Georgia Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms at 71 percent on Polymarket in their respective governor races. The figures appeared in an update published Nov 3, 2026, at 3:00 AM ET.

California contests attract substantial volume

California’s governor race generated about $628,000 in Kalshi trading volume over 24 hours, according to Action Network. The Los Angeles mayoral contest recorded about $592,000 over the same period.

Those two contests were among the most actively traded midterm markets after the Texas Senate race, according to the outlet. California’s gubernatorial market drew more volume than the Los Angeles mayoral market, despite the much more lopsided probability reported for the statewide contest.

Action Network placed Xavier Becerra near 99 percent in California’s governor race. In Los Angeles, it put incumbent mayor Karen Bass at about 70 percent against Spencer Pratt—a substantially less decisive market assessment.

What it means for prediction markets

• The reported prices distinguish a near-certain market favorite in Becerra from favorites with more uncertainty remaining: Acton at 82 percent, Bottoms at 71 percent and Bass at about 70 percent.
• Trading activity and outcome uncertainty are different measures. California’s governor race attracted about $628,000 in 24-hour Kalshi volume even with Becerra priced near 99 percent.
• The Ohio and Georgia probabilities were identified as Polymarket prices, while the California and Los Angeles volume figures came from Kalshi. Readers should keep those platform and metric distinctions intact when comparing the snapshot.