Bitcoin’s $80,000 November threshold leads Polymarket ladder at 79%

November pricing

The $80,000 threshold leads Polymarket’s Bitcoin November price ladder, with a market-implied probability of 79%, according to Lines. The contract concerns whether Bitcoin reaches that price at any point in November, rather than where it finishes the month.

The pricing was reported on Nov 4, 2026, at 9:30 AM ET. It represents the market’s assessment at that time, not a confirmed outcome.

Contract structure and volume

Each strike in the ladder trades as a separate contract, according to Lines. The 79% reading therefore applies to the $80,000 threshold, rather than to the ladder as a whole.

Lifetime trading volume across the market totals $2.4 million. The supplied reporting does not break that figure down by strike, so it cannot be treated as volume for the $80,000 contract alone.

The market resolves on December 1, 2026. That resolution date follows the November window during which the price threshold can be reached.

What it means for prediction markets

• Touch versus month-end price: The relevant event is Bitcoin reaching $80,000 at any point in November, not closing the month at that level.
• Strike-specific probabilities: Each threshold has its own contract; the reported 79% applies specifically to $80,000.
• Market-wide volume: The $2.4 million lifetime total does not establish how much activity occurred at any individual strike.
• Resolution timing: The November observation window and December 1, 2026, resolution date are distinct.