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Kalshi congressional trading tops $420 million as concentration draws scrutiny

Multibagg, citing Bloomberg, reports the Kalshi congressional control volume split was 247 million dollars for the House and 177 million dollars for the Senate as of 11:30 a.m. ET on November 3. It also cites Anti-Corruption Data Collective data showing the top 1 percent of Polymarket Global wallets made up 68 percent of congressional-market volume through August 10, and a Vanderbilt study scoring PredictIt at 93 percent, Kalshi at 78 percent and Polymarket at 67 percent across about 2,500 markets in the final five weeks of 2024.

Congressional contracts attract substantial volume

Kalshi’s House and Senate control contracts recorded more than $420 million in notional trading volume as of November 3, according to Multibagg, citing Bloomberg data.

The breakdown at 11:30 a.m. ET on November 3 was $247 million for House control and $177 million for Senate control. The House contracts therefore accounted for the larger share of the reported activity.

Wallet concentration and platform scores

Separately, Multibagg cited Anti-Corruption Data Collective data showing that the top 1 percent of Polymarket Global wallets accounted for 68 percent of congressional-market volume through August 10. That figure measures concentration among wallets, rather than the number of individual traders.

Multibagg also cited a Vanderbilt study covering about 2,500 markets during the final five weeks of 2024. The study scored PredictIt at 93 percent, Kalshi at 78 percent and Polymarket at 67 percent.

The supplied summary does not explain the study’s scoring methodology. Those percentages should therefore be read as reported study scores, not assumed to represent a particular measure of forecasting accuracy.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume is not a probability signal: Kalshi’s reported totals describe trading activity, not the implied likelihood of either party controlling Congress.
  • Concentration matters when interpreting activity: Polymarket Global’s wallet figures show that a small share of wallets generated most congressional-market volume through August 10.
  • The comparisons have limits: The Kalshi volume snapshot, Polymarket Global concentration data and Vanderbilt study cover different periods and measures; they do not establish a like-for-like ranking of current forecasting performance.
KalshiPolymarketPredictItSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Multibagg
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  2. Source 2
    Bloomberg data via Multibagg
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Multibagg”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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