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Democratic control leads midterm market pricing as election trading tops $1.4 billion

KuCoin, citing Huo Xing Finance, says Polymarket's balance of power market has traded more than 58 million dollars and Kalshi's related sweep contract more than 100 million dollars. Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour called the midterms the first prediction market election, with total election trading above 1.4 billion dollars.

Markets favor a Democratic sweep

Polymarket puts the probability of Democrats winning both chambers at 78 percent, compared with 74 percent on Kalshi, according to KuCoin, citing Huo Xing Finance. The figures appeared in an update published Nov 3, 2026, at 3:00 AM ET.

Both platforms therefore favor a Democratic sweep, though their quoted probabilities differ by 4 percentage points. These are market prices, not election results.

Trading activity spans both platforms

According to KuCoin’s account, Polymarket’s balance of power market has recorded more than $58 million in trading. Kalshi’s related sweep contract has traded more than $100 million.

Total election trading has exceeded $1.4 billion. Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour characterized the midterms as the first election defined by prediction markets, according to KuCoin.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Directional agreement: Both platforms price Democratic control of both chambers as the more likely outcome, at 78 percent on Polymarket and 74 percent on Kalshi.
  • Different market scopes: The reported volumes concern Polymarket’s balance of power market and Kalshi’s related sweep contract; they should not be treated as identical measures of activity.
  • Timing matters: The probabilities are a snapshot from the Nov 3, 2026, 3:00 AM ET update, rather than a statement of the eventual outcome.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    KuCoin
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