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Governor markets lean Democratic as Polymarket and Kalshi prices converge

PolymarketTrader reports its November 3 governor forecast, updated at 14:04 UTC, rates 18 of the 36 races safe, 12 likely and 6 lean, and puts the most likely number of Republican governors below 22 at 55.5 percent. Across the 33 races priced on both Polymarket and Kalshi, the Democratic candidate's price differs by 0.7 points on average, widest in Texas at 2 points.

Polymarket’s governor map favors Democrats in 20 of 36 races and Republicans in 14, according to PolymarketTrader’s November 3 forecast. The figures leave two races outside those party-favored totals.

Race ratings and the Republican count

The forecast, updated at 14:04 UTC, classifies 18 of the 36 contests as safe, 12 as likely and 6 as lean. PolymarketTrader published the report on Nov 3, 2026, at 10:15 AM ET.

The most likely outcome for the number of Republican governors is below 22, with a probability of 55.5 percent, according to PolymarketTrader. That aggregate measure is distinct from the party-by-party breakdown of the 36 races.

Prices closely aligned across venues

Across the 33 races with prices on both Polymarket and Kalshi, the Democratic candidate’s price differs by an average of 0.7 points. Texas has the largest gap, at 2 points, according to PolymarketTrader.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 55.5 percent probability puts the below-22 Republican governor outcome ahead, but far from certain.
  • With 6 races classified as lean, the forecast distinguishes a less firmly favored group from the 18 safe and 12 likely contests.
  • The 0.7-point average difference indicates close pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi across their 33 shared races; Texas is the largest reported exception.
  • The supplied figures do not specify how the two races outside the Democratic- and Republican-favored totals are treated.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
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