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Kalshi outpaces Polymarket in reported trading on 2026 midterms

Trefis reports Kalshi had traded about 1.1 billion dollars on 2026 midterm markets as of around October 23, against about 340 million dollars on Polymarket. Polymarket was the larger venue in the 2024 cycle before returning to United States customers through its regulated app.

Midterm trading volume favors Kalshi

Kalshi recorded about $1.1 billion in trading on 2026 midterm markets as of around October 23, compared with about $340 million on Polymarket, according to Trefis.

Those figures put Kalshi’s volume at about 3.2 times Polymarket’s. The comparison measures trading activity on the two venues, rather than their forecasts for election outcomes.

A change from the 2024 cycle

According to Trefis, Polymarket was the larger venue during the 2024 cycle. That preceded its return to United States customers through its regulated app.

The reported 2026 figures therefore show a different ordering of the platforms by election-market volume. The supplied summary does not explain what drove that change or provide a breakdown by individual midterm contest.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Timing matters: The comparison reflects activity as of around October 23, not a final tally for the 2026 midterms.
  • Volume is not forecast accuracy: Kalshi’s roughly 3.2-to-one lead establishes a trading-volume advantage in the reported markets, not which platform’s probabilities will prove more accurate.
  • Platform context has changed: Polymarket’s return through a regulated app is relevant to comparisons with 2024, but the supplied figures do not isolate its effect on trading activity.
KalshiPolymarketMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Trefis
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