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Polymarket traders assign low odds to gold’s highest December thresholds

Polymarket's market on what gold will hit by the end of December has traded 2.4 million dollars and prices the 10,000 dollar level at 2 percent and the 15,000 dollar level at 1 percent. On the November gold board, the 4,500 dollar level is priced at 4 percent and the 4,600 dollar level at 2 percent.

According to predictDEX, Polymarket’s market on what gold will hit by the end of December has recorded 2.4 million dollars in trading. The update was published Nov 1, 2026, at 1:45 PM ET.

December’s upper thresholds

The December market prices gold reaching 10,000 dollars at 2 percent. The higher 15,000 dollar threshold is priced at 1 percent, according to predictDEX.

Those prices place both outcomes at the low-probability end of the market. The reported 2.4 million dollars in trading applies to the December market, rather than a stated amount for either individual threshold.

November’s separate deadline

On Polymarket’s November gold board, the 4,500 dollar level is priced at 4 percent, while the 4,600 dollar level is priced at 2 percent, according to predictDEX.

The November and December figures cover different deadlines and price thresholds. They therefore do not provide a direct comparison of the same outcome across the two months.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The December prices imply low market-assigned probabilities for gold hitting 10,000 dollars or 15,000 dollars by the deadline—not certainty that either outcome will fail.
  • November’s 4,500 dollar and 4,600 dollar thresholds also carry low prices, at 4 percent and 2 percent, respectively.
  • The reported trading total does not show how activity is distributed across December thresholds; it cannot establish liquidity at either quoted level.
PolymarketGoldInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    predictDEX
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