Kalshi leads cash-paid trading volume as Polymarket expands trader incentives

Polymarket is using deposit, rebate and referral incentives to attract traders back as Kalshi commands a substantially larger share of trading volume, according to Gaming America. The report was published Nov 7, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET.

Incentive filings accompany the market-share gap

Polymarket US submitted nine amendments to the CFTC between October 2 and October 26, covering seven deposit, rebate and referral programs, according to Gaming America. The filings outline its effort to pay for renewed trader participation.

On a cash-paid basis, Polymarket’s two platforms accounted for 20.1 percent of volume across nine venues in the 30 days before October 29. Kalshi’s share on that basis was 71.7 percent.

Gaming America’s headline separately puts Polymarket’s combined market share at 17.2 percent and describes it as declining. The supplied summary does not explain the basis for that figure or reconcile it with the 20.1 percent cash-paid measure, so the two should not be treated as interchangeable.

What it means for prediction markets

• The comparable figures show a substantial gap: Kalshi’s 71.7 percent share exceeded Polymarket’s 20.1 percent across the same nine-venue, cash-paid comparison.
• Incentives are not evidence of recovery: The nine amendments document Polymarket US’s acquisition efforts, but the supplied material does not establish their effect on volume or trader retention.
• Measurement matters: The unexplained difference between 17.2 percent and 20.1 percent limits conclusions about Polymarket’s overall competitive position.