Politics Took the Whole Board: 72 Percent of the Top 50 Is Midterms
Three days before Election Day on November 3, politics is not sharing the board. DeFi Rate's top 50 most-traded markets, observed this morning, hold 26 politics markets worth $22M in 24 hours, 72% of the top-50 total. Sports, usually the volume engine, holds 18 markets and $7M, just 22%.
The two biggest markets are both midterm questions at $3.5M each in 24 hours. Which Senate swing states Republicans win leads the board, with None at 23% on Polymarket across 128 outcomes. Congress Balance of Power is next: a Democrats sweep at 70c on Kalshi, a Democratic House with a Republican Senate at 27c, and a Republican sweep at just 5.6c.
The chamber picture underneath is split. Traders put $26M into election markets in the past 24 hours. Democrats are at about 70% to win the Senate, up 4 points this week, and about 94% to win the House, up 3 points. The House race itself traded $1.6M with Democrats at 95% on Polymarket, while Texas Senate leader James Talarico is at 71% on $2.4M.
This is now a market with real depth, not a novelty board. PredictionMarketsPicks counts 311 tradeable midterm contracts across 35 Senate races and 66 competitive House districts, and the balance-of-power combo alone has 77.9 million contracts traded with 61.0 million open. When the polls close on Tuesday, no category will be close.
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